Japan now sells more adult diapers than baby diapers. From 2002 to 2025, more than 9,000 schools closed — not for lack of resources, but for lack of children.
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
Data source: Fertility rate, total (births per woman) | Data
Introduction
The number of babies born around the world has changed a lot since the 1960s. These changes have affected how countries' economies work, how people live, and what the future looks like. Let's look at the numbers to see what important things policymakers and everyone else should know and learn.
The Highs: When 5+ Children Per Woman Was the Norm
In the early 1960s, Afghanistan (7.28 in 1960), Pakistan (6.80), Bangladesh (6.78), South Korea (5.95), and India (5.92) had fertility rates exceeding 5 children per woman—far above the replacement level of 2.1. China’s rate fluctuated wildly, peaking at 7.51 in 1963 during post-famine recovery. These numbers posed existential risks: unchecked population growth threatened food security, healthcare access, and economic stability.
The Great Decline: Success Stories and Hidden Risks
By 2021, many nations engineered remarkable turnarounds:
- Bangladesh: Slashed its rate from 6.88 in 1970 to 1.98 in 2021, a 71% drop in 50 years. Its targeted family planning programs, female education, and healthcare access transformed demographics.
- South Korea: Plummeted from 5.95 in 1960 to 0.81 in 2021, the world’s lowest rate. This 86% collapse reflects urbanization, workforce pressures, and soaring costs of child-rearing.
- China: After enforcing the one-child policy (1980 - 2016), its rate crashed from 2.76 in 1987 to 1.16 in 2021, creating a looming crisis: a shrinking workforce must support 220 million seniors by 2035.
- India: Reduced fertility from 5.92 in 1960 to 2.03 in 2021, nearing replacement levels. However, regional disparities persist, states like Bihar still average 3+ children.
Yet success has a dark side. Japan (1.30), the EU (1.52), and China (1.16) now face “demographic winters”: aging populations, strained pensions, and labor shortages. South Korea’s 0.81 rate means its population could halve by 2100.
Beyond the Numbers: The Hidden Risks Behind Bangladesh's Fertility Rate
Bangladesh’s current fertility rate of 2.2 (2023) seems stable, but we need to consider some other aspects as well:
- Emigration Threat: The annual migration of over 500,000 individuals, largely from the youth demographic, risks eroding Bangladesh's "demographic dividend," where currently 63% of the population is under 40.
- Regional Fertility Imbalances: Urban areas like Dhaka already exhibit sub-replacement fertility rates (below 1.8), indicating disparities in family planning access compared to rural regions.
- Rising Elderly Population: The number of seniors (60+) is projected to triple to 36 million by 2050, potentially creating significant economic dependency without a sufficiently robust workforce.
However, these risks also present significant opportunities if Bangladesh acts strategically. Just as China capitalized on its large youth population to become the world's second largest economy, Bangladesh has the potential to leverage its current demographic dividend. By proactively addressing the challenges of emigration, regional imbalances, and an aging population through targeted policies and investments in its youth, Bangladesh could unlock substantial economic and social progress.
Lessons from the Data: A Blueprint for Balance
- Avoid Extremes: South Korea’s 0.81 rate shows the perils of ultra-low fertility. Incentivizing childbirth (cash bonuses, parental leave) and welcoming migration are critical. Japan now reserves 40% of visas for foreign workers.
- Invest in Youth: Bangladesh must skill its 35 million under-25s through STEM education and job creation. India’s focus on IT training boosted its tech workforce to 5 million.
- Empower Women: Bangladesh’s success stemmed from girls’ education (female secondary enrollment rose from 13% in 1975 to 72% today). Pakistan, stuck at 3.47 fertility, lags due to 40% female illiteracy.
- Adapt Policies: China reversed its one-child policy in 2016 but still struggles. Culturally resonant messaging—like Vietnam’s “Two Children, Prosperity” campaign—works better than coercion.
The Bottom Line
What these numbers mean is that countries need to think carefully about how many people they have. They need to avoid having too many people and also avoid having too few. For Bangladesh, the large number of young people now is a big chance to make the future strong. What happened in Europe and Japan shows us that if the number of babies gets very low, it's very hard to change it. So, Bangladesh needs to act now to find the right balance. This isn't just something they should do, it's something they really need to do.
Sources
- Japan's diaper makers look to adult market for revenue as births fall | Reuters
- Japan Producing so Few Babies That Diaper Maker Is Pivoting to Adults - Business Insider
- Sign of the times in Japan as nappy company switches production to adult nappies | Japan | The Guardian
- In rural Japan, schools are closing due to population decline
- old.bmet.gov.bd/BMET/viewStatReport.action?reportnumber=16